Are we seeing an uptick and second wave in COVID-19 in the USA

It all depends on definitions and the data used. Clearly in many parts of the country there are increases in the number of COVID-19 positive patients. This in large part is due to the increased testing. The number also must be in large measure related to the opening of the economy and people trying to get back to their normal lives again. The more testing, the more we will see more positive cases. Why? Because the majority of individuals less than 50 years old, up to now, who are infected with COVID remain asymptomatic. They can certainly transmit the virus to others but for the most part are not getting sick.

In some states there has been a significant increase in the deaths due to COVID over the past two the three weeks. In other states, deaths have not changed since April. So, there has been no “flattening of the death curve”. Many will argue that the deaths are in the high risk groups, but even so , the virus has to still be around to infect the high risk population. Death rates are difficult to evaluate. What should we use as the denominator? I look at the actual number of deaths.

COVID will not be going away for along time. I think the first wave has not really left us in many parts of the country, but only declined in some states. The summer will be an important period. We are seeing large increases in infections across the south. We can only hope that these do not translate into hospitalizations and deaths. Social distance and go about your business safely, with masks. Stay safe.

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